Under El Niño's Shadow: India’s Heat, Power and Health Challenge

India’s 2026 monsoon brought below-normal rainfall and hotter conditions, increasing electricity demand while reducing hydropower generation and putting pressure on coal supplies. In this edition of the India Energy and Climate Pulse, we examine how weather extremes shaped India’s power sector while addressing health risks from heat and air pollution.

By: Robbie Andrew (CICERO), Shivika Mittal (CICERO), Sourangsu Chowdhury (CICERO)

2026 Monsoon: Hotter, Drier Conditions Under Strengthening El Niño

The 2026 southwest monsoon season (June–September) recorded below-normal rainfall, with seasonal rainfall amounting to 87% of the Long Period Average (LPA) which is the fourth lowest since 2001. Rainfall during June was the lowest since 2014 at 39% below LPA, while July received near-normal rainfall at 1% above LPA. Rainfall subsequently declined to 14% below LPA in August before improving slightly to 7% below LPA in September.

Weak El Niño conditions emerged in June and progressively intensified during the southwest monsoon season. By the end of the season, El Niño conditions had strengthened considerably, reaching strong intensity. Due to these conditions, temperatures – both maximum daytime and minimum overnight – were above normal during this period. The combination of below-normal rainfall and elevated temperatures contributed to increased cooling demand, placing additional strain on the power system during this monsoon period.

Hotter and drier monsoon drove power demand

Hotter and drier weather in 2026 pushed power demand up, with demand increasing by 11 % (71.1 TWh) over the past four months compared with the same period in 2025, largely driven by stronger cooling needs. Monthly peak demand also climbed to 270.8 GW in 2026, up from 242.5 GW in 2025.

Peak demand has long been a closely watched indicator in India because of the importance of having sufficient supply to meet this peak. The peak demands in six of the first nine months of 2026 were all higher than the highest-ever previous peak, reached in May 2024. This trend highlights the growing pressure on India's power system to meet rising electricity needs during periods of extreme heat.

El Niño reshaped the power-generation mix in 2026

A drier-than-normal southwest monsoon combined with hotter temperatures reshaped the generation landscape, with hydropower taking the biggest hit. During the monsoon months (June–September), hydro generation fell by 20.5% (19.0 TWh) compared with 2025, reducing the contribution from this dispatchable source just as electricity demand was rising.

The resulting hydro shortfall was largely absorbed by coal, with coal generation increasing by 12.9% (54.0 TWh) in 2026 compared to 2025. Renewables gained momentum during this monsoon period compared to the wetter monsoon last year. Solar generation jumped by 41.3% (20.5 TWh) in 2026 compared with 2025, supported by drier conditions and increased installed capacity. Wind generation also rose by 22.6% (11.0 TWh) during the monsoon season, supported by strengthened southwest monsoon circulation and higher wind speeds associated with the intensification of the low-level Somali Jet – a key monsoon driver – particularly across Tamil Nadu’s key wind corridors. Gas-based generation rose in September, but across the four months of the monsoon waslittle changed since 2025. Together, these sources helped bridge the supply gap and maintain system flexibility and reliability during a period of elevated demand. However, solar’s availability is limited to daylight hours, leaving wind and thermal generation, particularly coal, to bridge the gap created by lower hydropower output and meet demand during evening and night-time hours.

Coal stocks tightened, but renewables helped maintain system resilience

Historically, when coal accounted for a larger share of India’s power mix, maintaining adequate coal stocks at power plants was a major operational priority, particularly ahead of the monsoon season when heavy rainfall could disrupt mining, transportation and coal deliveries. There has been a strong downward trend in the number of coal plants with low coal stocks from 2022 onwards, with temporary increases during a few months in 2023. This trend reflects improvements in coal production efficiency and dispatch, alongside the growing share of renewables in total electricity generation, which has reduced the pressure on coal-fired power.

In 2026, however, the coal supply situation was tighter. Coal India’s production in the period 1 April to 15 June had already fallen by 10.2%, while its coal dispatch remained broadly stable (-1.7%) by drawing down pit-head stocks, despite 2025 being a particularly mild pre-monsoon period. At the same time, increased coal-based generation, combined with disruptions to mining and transportation operations, widened the gap between coal production and consumption. As a result, coal stocks at power plants dropped significantly lower than in 2025, reducing the conventional buffer available to the power system during the monsoon.

The growing contribution of renewable generation provided an important cushion, reducing the extent to which additional coal-fired generation was required to meet high peak demand. This helped offset some of the pressure from lower coal stocks and weaker hydropower availability, allowing the system to maintain reliability through the monsoon despite a tighter fuel-supply position.

Rising Health Risks Beyond Energy

The implications of a hotter and drier monsoon extend beyond the enhanced electricity demand. Higher daytime temperatures increase heat-related health risks, while warmer nights can prolong exposure and reduce opportunities for our bodies to recover. Additionally, studies have indicated that drier phases during monsoon or break periods, tend to enhance moist heat, which can further strain the human body. The recent Global Burden of Disease study estimates 0.34 (0.25–0.44) million deaths and 9.2 (6.8–11.9) million disability-adjusted life years (DALY) annually due to non-optimal temperature in India. Additionally, these risks and impacts are unevenly distributed. While reliable electricity for cooling is particularly important during these hot and moist episodes, access to air conditioning and other cooling technologies remains strongly shaped by income in India, leaving a large proportion of poorer and rural households more vulnerable. Rising national electricity demand can therefore co-exist with gaps in access to adequate cooling, leaving vulnerable populations disproportionately exposed to heat.

Meeting additional demand through coal-fired generation as in 2026 results in the emission of large quantities of particulate matter, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides, which contribute to air pollution exposures. The Global Burden of Disease study estimates that 2 (1.7–2.4) million deaths and 59.4 (50.5–67.6) million DALY annually. A recent study estimated that coal-fired power plants are responsible for 0.12 (0.1–0.15) million deaths in India per year. On top of that, research across Indian cities indicates that the mortality risks associated with PM2.5 can be greater on hotter days, highlighting the importance of addressing heat and air pollution together. These interconnected risks highlight the importance of treating energy resilience and public health as shared priorities. Expanding renewables as is ongoing now, alongside grid flexibility, can help meet growing cooling needs while limiting additional exposure to air pollutants from thermal power generation.

Conclusion

Overall, 2026 showed how quickly weather can reshape the power system. Hotter temperatures drove India’s power demand higher, while a weaker monsoon reduced hydropower output. Coal, gas, solar and wind helped fill the gap, underscoring the need for a flexible, diversified generation mix capable of responding to both rising demand and increasingly variable weather conditions. However, the implications of a hotter and drier monsoon extend beyond the power sector, with rising temperatures increasing heat-related health risks, particularly among vulnerable populations. These risks are further compounded by unequal access to cooling, which leaves poorer households particularly vulnerable to extreme heat.